Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
