Just eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
